Latest on NJS Weekend Storm

The lower line

For the 4th time in February and 11th time this season we have a winter storm in the forecast of New Jersey. (In fact two – but we will address the other at the end.)

I think I read somewhere that President’s Day weekend has a tendency to be New Jersey’s Stormiest This year’s Holiday Helg. It seems that we always have snow, ice, extreme cold or all of the above around this time of year. February, after all, is the state’s average triumph month of the year.

The bottom line for Saturday is that most New Jerseyans face a few hours of snow and cause slurky roads and smooth travel. But this storm system carries a wave of heat, so a transition to rain will take over before accumulations become too high.

Sunday looks like a real soaker with periods of rain pretty much all day. Remember, we really need the rain – the whole state is still officially in drought, with a third of NJ classified as “extreme drought”.

In addition to the storm, an Arctic explosion Gusty brings win and a return to really cold temperatures.

There is another storm system in the time frame Wednesday-Thursday next week. The effects are still very uncertain, but “big snow” is an option.

Timeline

Snow Start … The first snowflake will be spread in New Jersey in Saturday early afternoon hours, between 7 p.m. 12 and at. 15, the soil is cold enough for it to adhere and begin to gather immediately (on non-treated surfaces).

Switch to rain … For long southern New Jersey, rainfall is likely to be ordinary rain at the beginning with air temperatures near 40. For southern central NJ I expect a transition to all rain by approx. at. 18.00 Saturday night. For North-Central NJ it will be snow-covered longer, turn to icy mix and then all rain through. 21.00 Saturday night. The northern reach of New Jersey, mainly along and north of Interstate 80, holds on to snow and/or winter mix until early Sunday morning, around 10 pm.

Brown … First of all, snow could come in “Hot N ‘Heavy” on Saturday afternoon and early evening, which led to quick accumulation. The The strongest part of the storm will actually come around noon Sunday. Only regular rain falls over New Jersey at the time, but it could really pour for a while. Nested thunderstorms are also possible.

The painting of … In the middle of the afternoon Sunday, around 7 p.m. 14:00, the storm will move off the coast and rain will slowly drain over New Jersey. Final raindrops are expected in the state around 10 p.m. 18.00 Sunday night. Behind the rain, a gusty wind will kick “Whooshing” in cold, Arctic air.

Accumulations / influences

South Jersey (White) … Almost all the rain. Little to no snow or isaccumulation. Just wet. Total rainfall is likely to end between 1 and 2 inches.

South-Central Jersey (Green) … A few hours of snow could put a healthy coating on the ground. I will call it 0 to 1 inch, just to be sure. But I expect that most road conditions will also be wet not winter in this zone.

North Central Jersey (Light Blue) … It will be snow covered for most of Saturday afternoon and evening, potentially causing an inch or two of fresh sneak cumulation. Enough for slushy roads and smooth travel conditions. Depending on how fast and cleaning the transition to rain is, there may also be some light glaze on top of this snowfall.

North Jersey (Dark Blue) … Even the snow zone in New Jersey will eventually turn to rain as temperatures rise in their 40s. Keywords: Eventually. 2 to 4 inches of snow will be followed by a period of gossip and freezing rain, potentially causing a glaze of ice. It’s not a “bigger” storm, especially after North Jersey standards – but these conditions won’t be fun to drive on whatever.

Advisations

ONE Winter weather advisory Covers all or part of eight New Jersey comments that start on Saturday afternoon:
—Noon to 22.00 Saturday … Hunterdon and Somerset.
—The Saturday to 7 p.m. 1 Sunday … Bergen, Western Essex, Eastern Passaic, Warren.
—Ken Saturday until 7 p.m. 4 Sunday … Morris and Sussex.
—Kent Saturday to 7 Sunday … Western Passaic.

Advice is generally issued when at least 2 to 3 inches of snow and/or a light glaze of ice can cause treacherous travel conditions.

In addition, a High wind clock Has been issued to the entire state warned of winds throwing 50-60 mph after the storm:
—10 AM Sunday until 18.00 Monday … Atlantic, Burlington, Camden, Cape May, Gloucester, Monmouth, Ocean and Salem.
—1 Sunday until 7 p.m. 18 Monday … Hunterdon, Mercer, Middlesex, Morris, Somerset, Sussex and Warren.
—6 pm Sunday until 7 p.m. 18 Monday … Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Passaic and Union.

This wind is strong enough to blow up branches and weak trees and also move your trash. Scattered power cuts are possible. Plus, the hard wind adds a big bite to the increasingly cold air.

What’s coming then?

High temperatures Monday will fight to reach mid -30s. And then Tuesday and Wednesday ends closer to 30 degrees. Overnights could dip down in teens with a wind cooling (“feeling like” or “apparent” temperature) near zero. It is very close to “dangerously cold” territory.

Finally, I have to tackle the potential for a significant winter storm around Wednesday-Thursday next week. I have mentioned randomly this option for a few days now, based solely on the fact that our forecast models have consistent shown a storm signal in this timeframe. It is remarkable and worth mentioning, so no one is surprised by this thing.

However, uncertainty remains very high as the exact tracks and speed of the storm dictate how much Snow New Jersey will (or will not) see.

Basically, you can choose a number between 0 and 25 inches of snow, and I can show you a forecast model that suggests this option somewhere in NJ.

I would say that a complete “Miss” is becoming increasingly unlikely. We can basically play three potential scenarios as it stands now:
1.) A looking battle where the southern and coastal New Jersey gets some snow. But nothing to the north and west. (Note: The latest GFS favors this solution.)
2.) If the storm track drives too far north, the southern and coastal New Jersey could see more ice -cream mix than straight snow. So the possibility of large snowfall tracks north, into the central and northern parts of the state. (Note: The latest Canadian and UKMEM Models carry something similar.)
3.) The scenario with “worst case” would be a perfect storm track, ample cold air and approx. 12 hours of powerful snow. A foot of accumulation for everyone! (Note: The latest European model is quite impressive and shows a large blizzard for everyone.)

To be ready, I don’t favor any of these three scenarios right now. They are all on the table so far. Over the next 24 to 48 hours, we will begin to get better resolution on potential accumulations and effects. Timing is also important for nailing down as “first flakes” could be anywhere from Wednesday afternoon to late Wednesday night.

And that’s it. Enjoy this weekend’s snow, rain, wind and cold. And we are likely to talk more about the potential Midweek Nor’Easter late Sunday or early Monday.

Dan Zarrow is the main meteorologist for Townsquare Media New Jersey. Follow him on Facebook For the latest forecast and real -time road updates.